Fantasy Football: Late Round Sleepers

The time has come when most fantasy football drafts will be taking place. Whether the stakes are high or none at all, bragging rights are an invariable reward for those who come out on top. 

Most people head into draft day with their eyes on a select few players who rank at the top of points-per-game projections. However, the reality is that Jonathan Taylor will only end up on one team; the same goes for Cooper Kupp and Christian McCaffrey. So, it is of paramount priority to have a list of players in the back of your head that you can fall back on in the event that your top choices are picked ahead of you. 

Here are some late-round sleepers that will make great additions to your fantasy football team. 

Round 1: Deebo Samuel (Wide Receiver, San Francisco 49ers)

The jack of all trades in Deebo Samuel is as close as you can get to a guaranteed 10+ points per game from a skill position player, whether he is carrying the ball out of the backfield or catching passes from Trey Lance. 

Out of 25 starting QB's in 2021, Jimmy Garoppolo ranked 20th in pass attempts. With Lance at the helm, who is known for his ability to sling the ball down the field, look out for Samuel's receiving production to take even more of a leap this year. The only limiting factor to Samuel's fantasy football success would be his own teammate Brandon Aiyuk, who averaged 14.8 yards per reception a year ago. His ability to get vertical will likely be rewarded by Lance, but to what extent, we are yet to find out. 

Round 2: Deandre Swift (Running Back, Detroit Lions)

One big factor I look at when picking running backs is their quarterback who hands the ball off to them. Take the Chiefs as an example. I probably wouldn't pick someone like Clyde Edwards-Helaire or Jerick Mckinnon because of the pass-heavy offense that they are a part of. With that being said, Patrick Mahomes will consistently get the ball down the field, which could lead to many red zone opportunities for his running backs to get a fair amount of 2–3 yard touchdowns.  

Now back to Deandre Swift. 

I first look at his quarterback in Jared Goff. Goff was below average in total pass attempts among starting quarterbacks and did not even crack the top 22 in yards per attempt. This tells me that Deandre Swift will have many opportunities out of the backfield to run the ball, and he will have a lot of field to work with. Swift is also a major receiving threat for the Lions, who don't have the strongest receiving core. 

Another factor to take into account with running backs is their offensive line. You can have someone with top-10 talent (like Saquon Barkley) but give them a below-average o-line (Giants' o-line ranks 18th in the league), and there is only so much they can do. Pro Football Focus ranks the Lions' offensive line as 3rd in the NFL. This will obviously have a huge impact on the success of Swift and his ability to get downhill. 

Round 3: Aaron Jones (Running Back, Green Bay Packers)

With the departure of Davante Adams, I think Aaron Jones will have an increased role in the offense. The Green Bay receiving core is not looking too strong this year, and Aaron Rodgers will have to rely on Jones out of the backfield quite often when his receivers aren't getting enough separation. I don't anticipate Jones to have a breakout year rushing, with the emergence of young back A.J. Dillon, however, I do believe that Jones's role as a receiver this year is where he will rack up most of his points. 

Round 4 and beyond: Gabriel Davis (Wide Receiver, Buffalo Bills)

While his position rank is 58 on ESPN Fantasy Football, Gabriel Davis is someone you should keep an eye on in the late rounds. Through some research on Next Gen Stats, I found that Josh Allen was 8th in the league in Time to Throw, meaning the average amount of seconds it took on each pass for his to get rid of the ball. This indicates that Allen is willing to hold onto the ball a little longer than most quarterbacks, allowing deeper routes to develop. Davis's numbers didn't jump off the chart during the 2021 regular season, but his playoff production was greater than any of his fellow Bills receivers. In particular, his performance against the Chiefs, where Davis racked up 200 yards on eight receptions, with four touchdowns! I believe Josh Allen will have an added level of trust in Gabriel Davis this season, and you should too.