Fantasy Football: Late Round Sleepers

The time has come when most fantasy football drafts will be taking place. Whether the stakes are high or none at all, bragging rights are an invariable reward for those who come out on top. 

Most people head into draft day with their eyes on a select few players who rank at the top of points-per-game projections. However, the reality is that Jonathan Taylor will only end up on one team; the same goes for Cooper Kupp and Christian McCaffrey. So, it is of paramount priority to have a list of players in the back of your head that you can fall back on in the event that your top choices are picked ahead of you. 

Here are some late-round sleepers that will make great additions to your fantasy football team. 

Round 1: Deebo Samuel (Wide Receiver, San Francisco 49ers)

The jack of all trades in Deebo Samuel is as close as you can get to a guaranteed 10+ points per game from a skill position player, whether he is carrying the ball out of the backfield or catching passes from Trey Lance. 

Out of 25 starting QB's in 2021, Jimmy Garoppolo ranked 20th in pass attempts. With Lance at the helm, who is known for his ability to sling the ball down the field, look out for Samuel's receiving production to take even more of a leap this year. The only limiting factor to Samuel's fantasy football success would be his own teammate Brandon Aiyuk, who averaged 14.8 yards per reception a year ago. His ability to get vertical will likely be rewarded by Lance, but to what extent, we are yet to find out. 

Round 2: Deandre Swift (Running Back, Detroit Lions)

One big factor I look at when picking running backs is their quarterback who hands the ball off to them. Take the Chiefs as an example. I probably wouldn't pick someone like Clyde Edwards-Helaire or Jerick Mckinnon because of the pass-heavy offense that they are a part of. With that being said, Patrick Mahomes will consistently get the ball down the field, which could lead to many red zone opportunities for his running backs to get a fair amount of 2–3 yard touchdowns.  

Now back to Deandre Swift. 

I first look at his quarterback in Jared Goff. Goff was below average in total pass attempts among starting quarterbacks and did not even crack the top 22 in yards per attempt. This tells me that Deandre Swift will have many opportunities out of the backfield to run the ball, and he will have a lot of field to work with. Swift is also a major receiving threat for the Lions, who don't have the strongest receiving core. 

Another factor to take into account with running backs is their offensive line. You can have someone with top-10 talent (like Saquon Barkley) but give them a below-average o-line (Giants' o-line ranks 18th in the league), and there is only so much they can do. Pro Football Focus ranks the Lions' offensive line as 3rd in the NFL. This will obviously have a huge impact on the success of Swift and his ability to get downhill. 

Round 3: Aaron Jones (Running Back, Green Bay Packers)

With the departure of Davante Adams, I think Aaron Jones will have an increased role in the offense. The Green Bay receiving core is not looking too strong this year, and Aaron Rodgers will have to rely on Jones out of the backfield quite often when his receivers aren't getting enough separation. I don't anticipate Jones to have a breakout year rushing, with the emergence of young back A.J. Dillon, however, I do believe that Jones's role as a receiver this year is where he will rack up most of his points. 

Round 4 and beyond: Gabriel Davis (Wide Receiver, Buffalo Bills)

While his position rank is 58 on ESPN Fantasy Football, Gabriel Davis is someone you should keep an eye on in the late rounds. Through some research on Next Gen Stats, I found that Josh Allen was 8th in the league in Time to Throw, meaning the average amount of seconds it took on each pass for his to get rid of the ball. This indicates that Allen is willing to hold onto the ball a little longer than most quarterbacks, allowing deeper routes to develop. Davis's numbers didn't jump off the chart during the 2021 regular season, but his playoff production was greater than any of his fellow Bills receivers. In particular, his performance against the Chiefs, where Davis racked up 200 yards on eight receptions, with four touchdowns! I believe Josh Allen will have an added level of trust in Gabriel Davis this season, and you should too. 

Thoughts on Commanders Week 1 Preseason game

The NFL season is finally back! Preseason, that is. Over the next few weeks, teams will be able to see how their players gel with each other, and what changes need to be made before their final cuts. 

The Washington Commanders played their first preseason game this past Saturday against the Carolina Panthers. This was the first time Washington fans got to see Carson Wentz suited up in a real game. Overall, Wentz was in total control for much of the three drives he was out there for. He completed 10/13 passes for 73 yards and didn't turn the ball over. Other than an underthrown deep ball to Terry McLaurin on Washington's 3rd drive, Wentz looked very sharp for his first in-game action with the team. 

Let's get into some positives, and negatives that I was able to take away from this game. 

Positive: Great promise shown from Brian Robinson 

Washington brought in Brian Robinson to fill the role of a "power back" for the team: what they were missing in the absence of Peyton Barber. Standing at 6' 1" and weighing 225 pounds, Robinson was effectively able to make his presence known, after stepping in for Antonio Gibson, who committed a fumble on Washington's second drive. 

Robinson rushed for 26 yards and a touchdown on six carries: not a stat line that jumps off the page. However, it was Robinson's ability to get downhill and push the pile that caught my eye, which is exactly the skillset that Washington brought him in for. Robinson provides a change-up from the finesse-style of running that Antonio Gibson provides, and I think the two will complement each other well. If J.D. Mckissic continues his consistent play, Washington's backfield could become a scary three-headed monster. 

Negative: Defense looked a step too slow vs. Baker Mayfield

Carolina's new starting QB only played one drive; however, he made his presence felt early. Baker Mayfield led his Carolina offense methodically down the field, in the process converting multiple third downs. While this drive ended in a field goal, it seemed all too familiar to many drives that took place in the 2021 season, where Washington would make a good play on 2nd down but give up a 3rd down conversion. I am hoping that Washington's defense was only shaking the rust off. 

Positive: Return of Curtis Samuel

One of the things that Washington fans were most excited about leading into the 2022 season is finally getting a chance to see a healthy Curtis Samuel. While he only caught two balls for 13 yards, it was great to see him back, and we can all hope Samuel will fit right in with this offense that has top-10 potential. 

Negative: Special Teams Issues (sort of)

This one may not be as big of a deal but seeing Joey Slye miss that extra point after Robinson's touchdown run gave me a feeling of "here we go again." After Washington's kicking struggles in years past, I would hate to see them have the same problems in the upcoming season. 

All in all, there was a lot to be excited about with this preseason game. The biggest factor in Washington's success this year will once again come down to quarterback play. From Saturday's game, Carson Wentz showed precision and stable decision-making, and there is good reason for Washington fans to hope for a winning season. But only time will tell. 

Is Stephen Curry the greatest point guard of all time?

Stephen Curry has once again won an NBA Championship. In addition, he has finally won his first Finals MVP, something that many "experts" expressed he needed to validate his career. The question that many may be asking now - how does the outcome of this series affect Curry's legacy, and his possible standing in the debate for the greatest point guard of all time?

The Warriors entered the 2021 NBA season widely dismissed when brought up in early NBA Championship discussions. After missing the playoffs for two straight seasons, many believed that the dynasty had ended, and that age and injuries were starting to take its toll on the core stars of the roster. 

However, the dominance of Stephen Curry early in the year resulted in finals talks disseminating throughout the media when speaking of the Warriors, and the emergence of Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole has only helped their cause. 

In addition, the return of Klay Thompson sparked a discussion over a new and improved version of the Splash Bros (which now included Jordan Poole), or "lethal weapon three," as Stephen A. Smith referred to them as.

Getting back to our discussion about the GPGOAT (greatest point guard of all time), does a win in the Finals and a Finals MVP solidify Curry as the greatest to ever do it at his position?

There are two "point gods" that are often brought up in this debate. Magic Johnson, and Isiah Thomas. Then there is the group on the fringe of this discussion, the John Stockton's and Chris Paul's of the world. I believe Curry has far surpassed this category of point guards.

There is one thing that Curry easily has the two legends, and that is shooting. Not much needs to be said in that department. 

Curry boasts a considerably higher career average than Johnson and Thomas. 

In the assist category, which could arguably be the most telling stat of a point guard, Curry is significantly behind Thomas and Johnson, with a career assist average of 6.5. Thomas has a career assist average of 9.3, Johnson with an incredible 11.2 assists per game. 

Curry also loses the rebounding battle to Johnson and is just ahead of Thomas in that regard. Other than 3pt shooting stats, and free throw shooting, Curry doesn't jump out in any department as better than any of the other two guards. But if we only took standard stats into consideration, then Oscar Robertson would be the undisputed GOAT of point guards. However, most people consider Magic Johnson to be the greatest. Why is that? Well, that is because of his ability to win games, more specifically, his legacy of winning championships. 

Magic Johnson is a 5x NBA Champ, more than the other three guards. The next closest is Curry, who currently has 4 Championships. One key factor to note is that Johnson earned Finals MVP in three out of the five championships he won. Curry has just one Finals MVP in the four he has won. As much as people say that Curry doesn't need Finals MVPs to validate his career, having them does matter when it comes to the GPGOAT conversation. Magic Johnson has three of them, and Isiah Thomas has one. 

Through standard stats and metrics that determine how accomplished a player is, it's clear that Curry holds his own among the all-time greats, but when taking a closer look at one advanced stat, Curry separates himself by miles in the department of TS% (True shooting percentage) and effective field goal percentage (eFG%). Both statistics takes into account 2-point field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws. These two statistics demonstrate the magnitude of the efficiency in which Curry has been scoring for his entire career. Even legends like Michael Jordan and Lebron James don't come near Curry in eFG% and TS%, showing the true value of the 3-point shot, and how Curry has revolutionized the game of basketball. 

As it stands right now, Magic Johnson is neck and neck with Curry in the GPGOAT race, with higher career averages in rebounds, assists, as well as one more championship and two more Finals MVP's. If Curry maintains his level of play for most of the remainder of his career, and wins one more championship AND a Finals MVP, there should be no question that Stephen Curry is the greatest point guard of all time. Curry's impact on the game has been profound, and he has transformed the role of the modern NBA point guard. 

Washington Commanders Early 2022 Season Predictions

The time has come to analyze rosters and predict outcomes for the upcoming NFL season. With the 2022 NFL Draft behind us, and the new schedule being released, it is now the time where most begin to make bold predictions on how their favorite team will fare with newly added stars and young additions. 

The Washington Commanders chose to upgrade the wideout position, selecting Jahan Dotson, wideout from Penn State in the first round of the draft. Adding him to an already lightning-quick receiving core of Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel, Washington should be much more of a vertical threat on offense this year. 

What this pick also tells us is that Washington management and Ron Rivera are going all in on Carson Wentz, making a concerted effort to give him the necessary tools for success. For the past few years, Washington's offense has limited them from getting to the postseason. To say that quarterback play for them has been below average would be an understatement. For the past four seasons, Washington has not cracked the top 20 in average passing yards per game. Part of this has to do with a flat-out lack of talent Washington has had at the position, but a large factor has been the revolving door of numerous QB's that Washington has started in years past. 

Electing to draft an offensive player disrupts the pattern of past years, as Washington has drafted a defensive player in the first round in four out of the last five years. Each of those four defensive players have made their respective impacts on the field, but none of it has amounted to much success on that side, outside of the 2021 season. 

In the second round, though, Washington opted to go with another defensive lineman. This choice arose in large part because of the loss of interior lineman Matt Ioannidis and Tim Settle. Both were essential to the run stopping and pass rushing ability of the front four. Jack Del Rio (Washington defensive coordinator) will look for second round pick Phidarian Mathis to fill the shoes of Settle and Ioannidis in their absence. 

With the release of the 2022 NFL season schedule, the Washington Commanders are tied for the easiest schedule in the entire league, according to the NFL. Let's do a quick run through of their schedule, and key games + final regular season record prediction. 

Week 1 - vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 2 - @ Detroit Lions

Week 3 - vs Philadelphia Eagles

Week 4 - @ Dallas Cowboys

Week 5 - vs Tennessee Titans

Week 6 - @ Chicago Bears

Week 7 - vs Green Bay Packers

Week 8 - @ Indianapolis Colts

Week 9 - vs Minnesota Vikings

Week 10 - @ Philadelphia Eagles

Week 11 - @ Houston Texans

Week 12 - vs Atlanta Falcons

Week 13 - @ New York Giants

Week 14 - Bye

Week 15 - vs New York Giants

Week 16 - @ San Francisco 49ers

Week 17 - vs Cleveland Browns

Week 18 - vs Dallas Cowboys

Over their 17 games, I am predicting that Washington will go 10-7 in the regular season. This should get them to the playoffs, however, with a 10-win record, they would likely need to claim one of the wild card sports, as opposed to being a division winner. The Dallas Cowboys are tied with Washington for the easiest schedule, and with their loaded roster, I expect them to finish with at least 12 wins. With that being said, let's take a look at some of Washington's big games, and how they will fare in those matchups. 

Week 4 - divisional matchup @ Cowboys:

Up until week 4, I am predicting that Washington will go 3-0, beating the Jaguars, Lions, and Eagles. Week 4 will be Washington's first game of the season facing an elite offense and defense in the Dallas Cowboys. They will lose this game in a high scoring bout, 34-27. 

Week 8 - revenge game @ Colts:

I expect Carson Wentz to struggle in this game, going against a defense that is pretty familiar with his playing style and tendencies. Washington's defense will do a good job containing the Colts offense for the first half of the game, but Jonathan Taylor will wear the front seven down and take over in the latter half of the game. Washington will lose this game with a score of 24-16. 

Week 10 - Monday Night Football @ Eagles

In Washington's second matchup against the Eagles will be a tough one, largely because it will take place at Lincoln Financial, where winning divisional games is never a simple task. Washington will win this game from a stout performance from their defense, and a 4-touchdown game from Carson Wentz. Final score prediction: 34-28 (Washington wins).

With added pieces and upgrades at certain positions, the Washington Commanders have set themselves up for success in their 2022 season. Much of their success will lay in the hands of Carson Wentz - his production or lack thereof will determine whether or not Washington makes the playoffs. 

Sleeper Fantasy Football Picks for the 2021 Season (Receivers)

Every year, a select few players electrify the fantasy football world, bringing smiles to the faces of people who may be making money from the game, or just competing against friends. 

The wide receiver position is always one that boasts a few top scorers in fantasy (the top 5-10%), with a large amount of them being in the 7-12 point per game range (35%). Last year, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs were among the few who proved to be consistent scorers week in and week out. 

However, not every fantasy football player has the luxury of a high enough pick in their respective draft to pick someone like Tyreek Hill or Davante Adams. Those players are usually gone after the first few picks. Here are a few sleeper picks that you will be able to rely on this year for heavy production. 

Curtis Samuel (WR) - Washington Football Team

Samuel will be a great dual-threat option for all fantasy football players this year. It would be best to have him at your FLEX position. Not only did he rack up 851 receiving yards and three touchdown receptions in 2020, but he also rushed for 200 yards and two touchdowns. Moving from Carolina to Washington, Samuel will have a more aggressive QB when it comes to slinging the ball down the field. Paired with a rising star in Terry McLaurin, the Washington offense will cause problems for opposing defenses with their plethora of speed. Samuel will have many opportunities to make plays, being that the attention from defenses was often given solely to McLaurin in the 2020 season. Look for increased production from Curtis Samuel this year.

DJ Moore (WR) - Carolina Panthers

Going back to Carolina is a receiver who is moving into his prime at a young age of 24 years old. DJ Moore has gone back-to-back years with 1,000+ receiving yards, with average quarterback play in doing so. Moore will now have a new quarterback in Sam Darnold, and a loss of Curtis Samuel might benefit him in the amount of targets he receives. I am predicting that DJ Moore will go for 1,350 reception yards this year, a new career high if he does so. 

Jerry Jeudy (WR) - Denver Broncos

Last season, a rookie receiver in Jerry Jeudy posted a productive 856 receiving yards on just 52 receptions. Jeudy was able to accomplish this with a second year quarterback who threw just about as many interceptions as touchdowns. With the acquisition of Teddy Bridgewater, the Broncos now have some quarterback competition. Whether Bridgewater takes the QB1 job, or Drew Lock proves he is competent enough, Jeudy will be in a much better position than he was a year ago. With his talent and route-running, look for Jeudy to have a breakout year and become a top 10 receiver in the coming years. 

Who is the WFT player to look out for this season?

As an influx of young talent flows into Washington, strengthening both the offensive and defensive end, Washington is now well equipped to make improvements from their past deficiencies in the 2021 NFL season.

While all of the incoming players must prove their worth and work for their respective spot in the lineup, I will be focusing on a player who had a solid rookie year at the running back position. That player is Antonio Gibson, second year player out of Memphis, who will heavily impact Washington's success on offense this year, for better or worse. 

As a fan of Washington, there have been years where the offense was loaded, but the production just wasn't there when it mattered most. Take the 2016 season as an example. Desean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, and Jamison Crowder were Washington's go-to guys on offense. In addition, Washington had one of the best tight ends in the league at the time (Jordan Reed). With Kirk Cousins at the helm, this team was only able to muster an 8-7-1 record, not making it to the playoffs. Now don't get the wrong idea, they put up big numbers through the air. Cousins threw for almost 5,000 passing yards, completing 25 touchdown passes in the process. However, in a win-or-go-home game against their division rivals (New York Giants), Washington only scored 10 points. A large part of this has to do with the lackluster run game during that season. Washington's leading rusher (Rob Kelley), only had 704 rushing yards that entire season. Whether that was the issue, or poor quarterback play, the lack of a potent run game clearly plagued Washington's ability to win games in the 2016 season. 

Washington heads into the 2021 season in a similar scenario. A gunslinger leading the way in Ryan Fitzpatrick, with elite receivers in Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel. However, whether or not Antonio Gibson can produce at a high level will impact the success of the offense, and the team when it comes to winning games. 

I am predicting that Gibson will step up in a big way this season, rushing for just under 1,000 yards, but also contributing in the pass game, with around 400 yards receiving. 

Is the WFT equipped to have a Top 10 Offense?

As we move into training camp for the 2021 season, each team in the NFC East is returning with an upgraded roster from the previous season. Each team has added more offensive playmaking ability, which was a problem for every team in the NFC East during the 2020 season (with the exception of the Cowboys). One thing is for sure: we won't have a division winner with a losing record. 

Washington enters training camp with several notable offensive additions. Starting with their new starting quarterback: Ryan Fitzpatrick. Say what you want about Fitzpatrick, but he is certainly an upgrade from any QB Washington had under center in 2020. Often times, Fitzpatrick gets a bad rap for being careless with the ball and inconsistent over long periods of times. Ryan Clark of ESPN (made the point skip to 4:25) that never in Fitzpatrick's playing career has any team ever said they were a "Fitzmagic away from being the best team in the division." While this is true, not many teams in past years have been as properly equipped as Washington on the defensive end. As plenty of analysts have already declared, all Washington needed was competent quarterback play to have won at least three more games last season. Putting points on the board was often the issue that plagued Washington's ability to win games. What people fail to realize is that Fitzpatrick has actually played very well over his past few seasons. In the 2020 NFL season, Fitzpatrick was the #1 quarterback under pressure. His 98.6 passer rating and 62.1% completion percentage under pressure were the highest in the league. After ranking 25th in points per game and still making it to the playoffs, albeit with a losing record, I think it's safe to say that Washington is a Fitzmagic away from being the best team in their division. 

The receiving core of the Washington Football Team took huge strides this offseason, signing Curtis Samuel, Adam Humphries, and drafting Dyami Brown from UNC. Samuel and Brown add much needed speed for explosive plays down the field, and Humphries will likely take Steven Simms' role as the primary slot receiver. The closest receiving core Washington has had to this was in the 2016 season, when Desean Jackson and Pierre Garcon lined up on the outside, and Jamison Crowder was in the slot. This was when Kirk Cousins was at the helm, throwing for 4,000+ yards every year as a starter. With the 2016 season culminating in a 8-7-1 record, Washington looked to their defense as a liability. Fast forward to this past season, the roles have been reversed. But not for long. Washington now has a similar dynamic as the 2016 offense, with much more speed in Samuel, McLaurin and Humphries. In addition, Washington now have a solid young running back in Antonio Gibson, who I think is more of an offensive threat than Robert Kelley was. 

With a plethora of offensive talent and speed, Washington should have no problem putting points on the scoreboard. A defense that will continue to improve can't hurt their chances at another playoff run. After an offseason in which the WFT refined their strengths, and took their lackluster offense and rebuilt it, their 2021 season will come with high expectations. I expect them to finish with an 11-6 record (there are now 17 games in the regular season), and make the playoffs. Their offense displays the potential to be a top-10 offense, but whether that plays out as planned depends on the ball security and overall play of Ryan Fitzpatrick.