How Likely is a Washington Football Team Playoff Appearance?

This season has been a roller coaster so far for the Washington Football Team, with more lows than highs. 

Starting from week one: The Eagles eased their way into a 17-0 lead, making all Washington fans think, "another one of these years," which is what has been going through the heads of Washington fans on most week one's within the past 20 years. What happened next was both surprising and also magical, being that Washington's 27 unanswered points have been just about the only glimpse of hope given by this team. 

Other than the football team's week one comeback against the Eagles, they have not had much success at all. 

It seems as if every time the WFT gives some hope to the fan base, all of it is taken away in the next game. They win week one against the Eagles, but lose five straight games. They shut down the Cowboys, playing aggressive and with great energy on defense and looking flawless on offense. Only to turn the ball over five times against the Giants the following week... and lose by only three points. And just as fans are starting to say "Wow! I didn't know we were capable of making a 17-point comeback again," Washington goes on the road, puts themselves down 21 points, and comes back to tie the game up.... only to lose the game by a 59-yard field goal, given up with just 16 seconds left of play. It almost seems like they are trying to find a more interesting way to lose every week.  

As obvious as it might seem, it is clear that Washington wins games when they don't turn the ball over. Non-coincidentally, in the three games where they haven't turned the ball over, Washington is 2-1. That one loss came in a game where Alex Smith had to replace Kyle Allen, and was sacked 7 times in horrible (rainy) conditions. In all other games, they are 0-6.

It has become very evident over time that Washington is repeatedly shooting themselves in the feet, in games where they have a solid chance of winning. While this may seem obvious, there is another hidden reason behind why Washington has been so horrible within these first seven weeks.  

When field goals are made, the kicker goes unnoticed. However when they are missed, the kicker will start to take some blame. Right now, the latter is happening to Dustin Hopkins, kicker for the Washington Football Team. So far, Hopkins has made a rough 12/17 when it comes to field goal attempts, putting him at 70% on the year. While this happens every year for some kickers in the NFL, Hopkins is hurting his team the most. In games where Hopkins is asked to take two or more field goals, he has failed to convert at 100% accuracy in every one of those games, except for one. When Washington has put their trust in him to help them win games, he hasn't come through. 

As horrible as Washington has been over these first nine games, it's crazy to think that if they just clean up half of the avoidable mistakes they are making EVERY SINGLE game, they could easily make the playoffs. But it's true, seeing that even after five turnovers, they managed to be within three points of the New York Giants. And after seeing a 43-yard missed field goal and a fumble being the main reason why they didn't beat the Lions in a 21-point comeback. 

Looking at Washington's schedule over the last seven weeks, it won't be easy by any means, but there are winnable games in there.

Week 11: vs Cincinnati Bengals

Week 12: at Dallas Cowboys

Week 13: at Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 14: at San Francisco 49ers

Week 15: vs Seattle Seahawks

Week 16: vs Carolina Panthers

Week 17: at Philadelphia Eagles

Over that 7-game stretch, I believe Washington is capable of pulling out 4 wins, which puts them at 6 wins on the year - all they need to make the playoffs.  If Washington can limit the turnovers, MAKE field goals, and not continue to shoot themselves in the feet every game, there is no reason why this team shouldn't be well on their ways to the playoffs this year. 

Was trading Quinton Dunbar the right move for the Redskins?

So far, this offseason, the Washington Redskins have made many different moves in giving away and acquring different players. Not many of their acquisitions were very notable, other than their large investment in cornerback Kendull Fuller (who is now returning to the Redskins after playing with the Kansas City Chiefs for two seasons. Although, other than that, most of the other players that the Skins have brought it were previous reserves from other teams.

However, in lieu of signing Kendull Fuller, to their depleted secondary, the Skins traded fellow cornerback Quinton  Dunbar to the Seattle Seahawks, for a fifth round draft pick. This move greatly surprised me, not because of the trade though. Weeks before the trade, Dunbar had displayed interest in moving elsewhere to a new team, but I was never certain until hearing about the news of the trade. What I intitially was surprised about was what the Redskins received in return of trading Quinton Dunbar; a fifth round draft pick. According to Pro Football Focus, through week 17 of the 2019-20 NFL season, Dunbar ranked as the second best cornerback in the league in his overall PFF grade (which is judged by completion % allowed, opposing QB passer rating, etc.). Dunbar also had four interceptions, tied for eighth in the league. I get that Ron Rivera (Redskins new head coach) has a philosophy that only players who want to be on the team will play under him, but I am still astonished at the value dropoff that the Redskins received in return of trading Dunbar. However, I shouldn't be surprised, as the Skins' front office has a history of making questionable decisions.

Before this trade, I had my hopes up high for the Skins defense in the upcoming 2020-21 season. Those high hopes took a big dip after the trade. But it's time to reconsider.
The big question is: Does trading Dunbar really make a big difference?

Kendull Fuller, cornerback who the Redskins recently acquired from the Chiefs, played alongside Dunbar in the 2017-18 season. During that season, Dunbar had a 74.7 overall PFF grade, while Fuller had a grade of 90.6, one of the best in the league at the time. Although there grades show significant difference, they both allowed pretty much the same completion percentage, at about 56%. With a promising young core of Fuller and Dunbar, in a struggling secondary with a declining Josh Norman, the future looked bright, as the Skins were expected to develop their young cornerbacks for the next season.

Despite the fact that Fuller had one of the highest overall grades in the league as a cornerback, the Skins decided to trade him to Kansas City for an aging Alex Smith, who would replace Kirk Cousins as the starting quarterback. That year, Dunbar's production took a dip, receiving more targets, and allowing a higher completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks. It was clear that Dunbar wasn't used to being the top corner on the team, and he used that season to adjust. The year after (2019-20), was much different, as I eluded to earlier.

With almost an entirely new coaching staff, along with a new defensive coordinator (Jack Del Rio), and also verteran corner Josh Norman leaving to the Bills, Dunbar and Fuller would have been the leaders of that secondary. I'm sure a whole lot of Redskins fans were looking forward to that, but unfortunately, things didn't pan out the way we wanted it to, which happens a lot when you're a fan of the Washington Redskins.

So, to sum everything up: did the trade make a big difference?
The final answer is yes. The Redskins secondary could have been significantly better with him playing alongside his old teammate Kendull Fuller. With that being said, this young secondary has great promise. Former slot corner, Fabian Moreau, started stepping up later in the season once being moved to the outside. The Skins also have a guy who is more comfortable covering in the slot, Jimmy Moreland, who is coming off a solid rookie campaign. With the recent addition of Ronald Darby (corner from the Eagles, who struggled a bit last year, but a proven defender in past years), there should be some interesting competition for starting spots as the upcoming 2020-21 season approaches.